Archive for December, 2009

Survival of the Fittest NFL Style: Week 16 Pick

Posted on December 25, 2009. Filed under: Football, For Entertainment Purposes Only | Tags: Arizona Cardinals, Green Bay Packers, Seattle Seahawks, St. Louis Rams, Sucky Six, Survivor Pool |

For entertainment purposes only, I’m updating my 2009 NFL survivor picks here every week. The rules are simple. Pick a team to win each week. If they win, move on. Here’s a quick recap of my strategy.

Rule #1: Focus on the Negative

Rather than focus on what teams are good, focus on what teams are bad (and in some cases, really really bad). And there are plenty of them.  St. Louis, Cleveland, Kansas City, Oakland, Tampa Bay, and Detroit. If those teams (dubbed the “Sucky Six”) are not able to lose (if I’ve already picked their opponent), then consider the match-ups.  And all bets are literally off when one plays another (St. Louis v. Detroit in Week 8? No. Thank. You.)

Rule #2: Don’t Save a Team

Remember: don’t worry about “saving” a team for later. You can’t advance to the next week unless you survive this week. If there’s a sure thing involving one of the elite teams over one of the Sucky Six, take it. Don’t get eliminated because you left an elite team (i.e., New Orleans, Indy, Minnesota) on the table in hopes of using them later in the season.

I’m also keeping track of the teams I’ve used each week in a separate post.

So without further ado, here’s this week’s Survivor Pick:

Arizona (over St. Louis)

Kurt Warner should lead the Cardinals to victory over the lowly Rams

• There are a lot of strong contenders this week: New Orleans (v. Tampa), Cincinnati (v. Kansas City), San Francisco (v. Detroit), Green Bay (v. Seattle), Arizona (v. St. Louis).
• I’ve already used New Orleans, Cincinnati and San Francisco, so it’s down to Green Bay or Arizona.
• I’ll admit that when I first saw Arizona hosting St. Louis, that was my original plan. But then I saw Green Bay hosting Seattle, and I started to question my original plan.
• Why go with Arizona? Because they’re a good team, still playing for a higher playoff seed (with some help) and they’re hosting St. Louis. They’re hosting St. Louis. And they’re hosting St. Louis.
• Why Green Bay? Because they are still fighting to clinch a playoff spot and secure positioning. Because they are hosting Seattle. Because Seattle is terrible (Seattle lost to Tampa Bay – at home – last week). Because Seattle is traveling from Seattle to Wisconsin in December.
• Not to jinx myself, I actually looked ahead to next week (yes, I know that violates my rules) to see if that would help my decision. Arizona plays Green Bay in Week 17. And that game is way too close to call, so I would never select either one of them against one another. Not to mention that it is a potential (and likely) playoff preview. So this is my last chance to use either Arizona or Green Bay.
• All things being equal, I would typically select the team that’s playing the Rams.
• And this week is no exception. Hello Arizona.
• Congratulations to St. Louis. You’ve been selected as the designated loser for the 7th (7th!) time.
• If you have New Orleans, Cincinnati, Green Bay or San Francisco still available, go for it.

And that’s it for Week 16. Good luck!